US Politics: The House of Representatives Can't Elect a Speaker

[beatrice_otter]

The US Congress has two houses, the House of Representatives and the Senate. In order for anything to happen, both houses have to generally agree on it. Which means that in order for Congress to work, the House of Representatives has to work. And in order for the House of Representatives to work, they have to have a Speaker. That is, a member of the House who gets elected to lead and make various procedural decisions. Nothing can be done–they can’t even formally swear in the newly-elected Representatives–if they don’t have a Speaker.

Nancy Pelosi (Democrat) was a very long-standing Speaker. She retired without waiting to preside over the election of the next Speaker. And the Republicans have the majority of seats, but only by a knife’s edge … and they’re fractured.

When the House adjourned today, they had had six rounds of voting without anyone making it. To win, someone needs to get 218 votes. McCarthy is the leading Republican (and fairly moderate for a Republican), and the most he’s ever gotten is 203. There are about 20 Republicans who will not vote for McCarthy, and are perfectly fine grandstanding about it. The leading Democrat (Hakeem Jeffries) got 212 votes every single round.

And without a Speaker, there’s nobody with the authority to tell the C-Span cameras they can’t film the House floor in the between-votes moments when the legislators are arguing and making deals and milling about the floor. So they’ve been having a field day watching it all.

So the question is … what happens next? This can’t go on indefinitely. It’s almost certainly going to be a Republican (because there are more Republicans than Democrats, if only barely), but which one? Chances of McCarthy getting elected look slim, but there are a lot of the Republicans voting for McCarthy who wouldn’t vote for anyone the 20 holdouts would support. And despite the 20 holdouts being Trump-style extremists, a call from Trump to support McCarthy did absolutely bupkiss.

but the thing is, if the Republicans in the House can’t even get their shit together to elect a Speaker … are they going to be able to get their shit together to do literally anything else? Even after they manage to elect a Speaker?

Comments

[melannen]

It's very interesting to watch!

My guess is either McCarthy formally withdraws and then they fight it out looking for a compromise candidate for awhile (I think this *would* work, because some of the anti-McCarthy bloc just want to be able to claim a win, they don't really care who wins if not him) OR enough moderate Republicans go home and quit voting that some of the anti-McCarthyites have to either switch their votes or risk taking the blame for the Democrat winning.

The second one would be funnier but I suspect it will be the first.

In theory there's an option for the anti-McCarthyites getting enough far-right concessions to switch votes, but the problem is that would be based on McCarthy keeping promises, and none of the current House Republicans understand how that works.

[beatrice_otter]

I'm shocked that he didn't step back after the first two votes or so. Most Speakers only last two years, and many don't even make it that long. He's not playing the long game. This is not like the Presidency where if you miss your shot you're done. And if you can't get enough of your party to support you up front, how the heck are you going to get anything done if you actually get the office? You're not! You'd be a lame duck! It would be open season on you! Much better to step back, let someone else have it, mend fences with the people in your party who don't like you, and try again next time. That would have been the smart option, but now he's The Guy Who Can't Get Elected And Won't Step Aside, which makes him much less likely to be elected Speaker in the future.

Also, the problem with McCarthy keeping promises is that he apparently has a reputation in his own party for not keeping promises to his own people. If they were going to believe his promises, they would have already done so and switched to voting for him. I'm pretty sure the next step is him stepping aside and some other Republican getting the job and the 20 holdouts going back to their districts bragging about the whole thing.

But it was funny to see the Democrats bringing in popcorn.

[melannen]

I think the thing that often gets overlooked with these people is that they are not only not very smart, they are way, way deeper in shady stuff than even your average politician. It's very likely that McCarthy made specific quid pro quo deals to people based on the assumption that he would be Speaker, and if he can't fulfill his side of the deals, he will be facing very specific consequences. So he has to at least make a very good show that he's trying his hardest to do it. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if, assuming he doesn't get the job, some kind of horrible scandal surfaces from a mysterious leak from someone he promised something speaker-related to - at minimum he's probably promised a leadership position to someone who has treason blackmail on him.

[beatrice_otter]

You may very well be right! It'll be fun to watch, anyway.

[laurajv]

I keep wondering if there are enough Rs willing to do a deal with the Dems to elect Jeffries (possibly by just not turning up and dropping the number of votes needed). but honestly this is so weird.

[beatrice_otter]

I highly doubt that will happen ... but the longer this goes on, the less unlikely it gets.

[swingandswirl]

On the one level, I'm horrified for y'all. On the other, the popcorn is delicious.

I honestly don't want Jeffries to become Speaker - no Dem deserves to be stuck herding the bag of feral, rabid cats that the Rs have become.

[beatrice_otter]

I know. If McCarthy gets it, HE gets the fun of herding the Republican majority and trying to get something--ANYTHING--done, which should be ... a challenge, let's just say. AND all the blame for Republican disfunction.